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Analisi
e previsione di temperature minime e di gelate sul bacino del
Trasimeno
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P.
Basili, S. Bonafoni, R. Biondi
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RIAM
04/2006
The growing interest for the monitoring of Trasimeno Lake (Central Italy) has led to the frost and minimum temperature forecast on the basin. Such atmospheric varibales affect the Trasimeno area climatology, the quality and quantity of the agricultural productions and the lake water level. Besides such analysis, a web site is under construction, where these real-time forecasts and the meteorological data will be available for interested users. In fact real-time forecast of severe temperatures can be carried out exploiting a
network of meteorological sensors acquiring and sending data to a centre every half an hour. The available database offers data collected from 4 weather stations placed on the Trasimeno basin since 1988. For extreme temperature forecast a statistic regressive algorithm has been implemented using data collected until the end of 2003. The same dataset has been employed to train suitable neural networks. For the validation phase, the regressive algorithms and the neural networks have been tested on new meteorological data. The above techniques have been implemented on Matlab platform, leading to an automatic procedure able to forecast frosts and daily severe temperatures starting from sunset. Analysing the errors during the estimation process of severe temperatures, it was possible to establish the best methodology and the atmospheric variables needed for the forecasting process. Also, a quality control of collected data on the Trasimeno basin was performed to obtain accurate forecast, useful also for agricultural and meteorological purposes and for the monitoring of the ecosystem of the lake. The forecast algorithm together with an automatic alarm system will prevent damages to the cultivations also improving the quality.
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